Mirvac is one of Australia’s largest residential developers, particularly apartments. Residential development earnings are volatile, generating about a fifth of EBIT in fiscal 2023, despite requiring only about 15% of the group’s invested capital. Over our 10-year discrete forecast period we don't expect residential development to exceed the lofty peaks seen in 2017, when Mirvac settled 3,400 residential lots. After an expected trough in 2025 we forecast modest growth as Mirvac constructs housing into an under-supplied market. About 80% of Mirvac’s earnings come from a predictable commercial property portfolio, more than half of which is high-grade office and another fourth in retail, a small industrial portfolio, and a small but growing build-to-rent residential portfolio.
